814 thoughts on “HAPPY THANKSGIVING”

  6. Phil a very Merry Christmas to you and yours, along with best wishes for a great New Year.
    Thanks for the site and to all those that post and do so with best intentions, A very Merry Christmas and happy holidays to you all.
    Blessings for good health, happiness and closeness of friends and loved ones.
    Peace

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  11. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to You All !
    And many thanks to Phil for the blog, and for the trades he shares.
    Many thanks also to those who regularly contribute with their analyses.
    Buon Natale a tutti

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  14. SPX , important level 4773-72 has been hit. PT from TIME–> Oct.27th low –> 4773. projected. TIME=Price.
    On Wed. pump &dump it was 4778 HOD. Today SPX back tested the key level 4772 and it was rejected.
    Dow, 37641 (ATH) had been hit. (projections from Jan.26, 2018 Top) HUGE. Hit to the exact 37641. and declined.
    I will not be surprised IF we don’t see higher highs in Jan. 2024.
    IF no Santa Rally this year, per Yale Hirsch- following year Recession is coming. (2008 etc)
    For now I will be mildly bullish and waiting SPY 485 while looking at the Exit door.
    Merry Christmas to all ! Happy Holidays! Great board, thank you Phil !

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  18. 4792,(4812),4827,4842.
    it stay above 4812 after 10:15am , very likely hitting 4827 now.
    above 4827 after 11:30am is straight up to 4842 . 4842 is also top of BB on 20Y/D above 5dema (4777)

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  20. ES Rallied premarket to 4808 just shy of the PT I mentioned last night. Wouldn’t be surprised for a quick pop up to trade the profit target and then decline to test either the 1/2 gap about 4800 or today’s GAPFILL at 4795. Lets see what happens if we test these levels.

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    1. Blew through all PT’s by > 6 ticks and still rallying means another extension long is forming. Waiting to see some decline to setup the extension long entry somewhere around 4809. Will try and post later.

      BTW, if that small 61.8% extension long that will form soon, the break will lead ES back down to the 1/2 GAP at 4801.25 and today’s GAP at 4795.25. That is what I mean last night when I said trade the PT and then an inside day. Lets see what happens.

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      2. Should add the 38.1% Extension long at 4811.50 because the trend is very bullish and although divergences continue that support additional decline, for the very, very short term bullish trend I am not too enthusiastic to trade this tape.

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  21. (4747),4762,4777,4792,
    (4812).
    i am selling all at 4807 within 5pt of 4812 , 9 bars outside BB on 5min .. bullish above 4762 until 4812 mathematically again.
    9 extension straight UP , 1 vs 1 down and up extension zigzag .. 🤣🤣🤣
    it is what it is , bears need cash open and stay below 4812 after 10:15am

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  22. (4747),4762,4777,4792,(4812),4827,4842.
    Good morning guys , yesterday it was short term bullish above 4762, and 5dema 20Y/D at 4777, unfortunately bears couldn’t hold below 5dema 20y/D , now it is still straight up.
    bulls need to hold above 4777 after cash open and 10:15am, bullish above 4762 until 4812.
    ABOVE 5dema longer term is aiming now at 4842 top of BB. (very likely now).
    Good luck.

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  24. Well, the USD supported this move in the equity markets today, $BANK and VX did not. There was a intraday 61.8% long that broke…..a CTR started after that break and actually broke the large LIS 61.8% SHORT into the close.

    Whenever you see this sloppy trading meaning intraday breaks of 61.8% long and shorts by a tick or two, the first thing that should come to your mind (I know I left myself open on that one) is a wedge. Therefore, if we see Europe and Wall Street open down a few points, think of a wedge and a range bound market tomorrow. Conversely, if the futures are up at the open, I expect to rally to the PT of this long at ES 4811 setup, then decline. Would not be surprised to see an inside day from that high.

    That leaves just a few days for SPX to print a new all time high in 2023. Can’t believe the large traders came this close to dragging SPX to new all time highs and not finish the job. As always, we’ll see. DH chart.

    If I don’t post tomorrow, I would like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukah, a Happy Holiday, a Happy and Healthy New Year (I hope that cover all the bases).

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        1. ..only livable there 2 months a year, went Fishing on Finnmarksvidda once, hech there was even temps down towards zero even in July at times..but light throughout the night. Manic depressive is the way of life up there.

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  30. (4747),4762,4777,4792,
    (4812),4827.
    cash open above 4777 , still straight UP , now above or below 4792 after 10:15am , above 4792 , gap Up Up Up ..
    it is what it is

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  31. You have to be kidding me! Increased volatility in the overnight session especially after 8:30. Anyway if it trades it counts!

    Updated technical levels. These levels can be temporary support/resistance lines or when CTR’s can start. For today these levels are….

    1. 4769 50% long
    2. 4763 61.8% long at my bull/bear LIS for today’s treading.
    3. 4749.25 today’s GAP
    4. 4767* 1/2 GAPFILL (50% between 9:30 open and today’s GAP)
    5. 4759, 4769, 4979 10, 20 and 30 point moves from the GAP
    6. 4792.50 and higher…is very bullish

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  33. (4747),4762,4777,4792,
    (4812).
    just hit my sell at 4792 from above 4782 buy after 8:30am , news don’t matter , it was BuLLISH above 4762 anyway and above 4777 5dema 20Y/D

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  34. 4727,(4747),4762,4777,4792,
    (4812)..
    Good Morning guys , short term is bullish as its above top end of chop at 4762, now retesting bullish above 4762 after hitting 4777, bulls need to hold above 4762 after cash open and 10:15am , last chance for bears to hold below 4777.
    Longer term its right below 5dema 4777 , this is the 2nd times retesting it, bears must hold below 4777 to see 18dsma 4697, NO short above 4777 after 10:15am, it would aim at top of BB again , and both short and longer term would be bullish.
    Good luck.

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  37. As a follow up to my post last night, as expected, ES started to rally at the reopen. Today we will find out if this decline has legs. The “bull/bear” LIS is the 61.8% short at ES 4797.33. Notice the yellow and red lines at the bottom of the chart. These lines show the long setups….

    1. If ES declines trades below the red line (61.8% long) that is very bearish. Low probability.
    2. If ES declines but defends the yellow line, the 50% long and rallies, that will lead ES to test the larger short setup. High probability. Again, the all important 61.8% short at 4797.33, if it breaks or defends, will dictate the short term trading pattern. DH chart.

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  40. Well, with ES trading 6 days outside the Bollanger Band and other metrics overbought on the shorter term timeframe, it was only a matter of time to see a meaningful decline ****IF**** a the smaller 61.8% extension long broke, it did and the larger extension 61.8% long broke as well. I did not expect the severity of this decline in one afternoon but as I mentioned in my morning post I thought ES would test the 4760 area (chart below).

    Today’s trading activity, is a trend change on the smaller timeframe from bullish to bearish. That may or may not be technically significant, yet. What HAS to happen next, is the first short setup has to defend the 61.8% TRADITIONAL SHORT. As long as 61.8% traditional short setups defend, ES will have further decline. That test could start as early as tomorrow, we’ll see.

    If you are a bear and want you cake and eat it, you want to either first see ES trade below the two lower red lines (traditional longs), 4709 and then/or defend the CTR which will start and that short setup, has to defend the 61.8% short. Either way, 61.8% short set ups must defend.

    Bottom line possible trend change to bearish but ES needs to defend 61.8% SHORT SETUPS.

    2 charts. Chart #1 was posted this morning showing both extension long setups. Chart #2 is the setup for the reopen. DH charts.


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  42. (4747),4762,4777,4792,
    (4812),4827,4842.
    just covered all at 4751 within 5pt of 4747 extension.. 🤣🤣🤣🤣 bearish below 4792 until 4747 is hit .
    descending triangle line at 4761 gap below to 4751 .
    it is what it is … i could have being sleeping while trading again

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  43. IF you look at EW , its nothing more than a smaller triangle (smaller wave) inside the bigger triangle (bigger wave) .. but you are alway guessing using fibonacci.

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      1. on 4100-4800-5500 .
        we hit very close to 4800 extension, ascending triangle line at 4800 .
        Below 18dsma longer term gonna see test 4600 in FEB and possible 4300 in june/july..
        eveything is still insync ..

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  45. (4682),4697,4712,4727,
    (4747),4762,4777,4792,
    (4812).
    its now bearish below 4792 until 4747 is hit.
    longer term below 5dema is aiming at 18dsma (its about 2 extension down at 4682-4697)

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    1. low at 61 , close to to 62 , now retest high at 74 4777 (5dema longer term ) but short term is bearish below 4792. short term 5min/day rules over longer term on day trade.
      everything is insyn

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  46. (4747),4762,4777,4792,
    (4812).
    retraced close to 4792 bearish below now back to 4777 5dema .
    covered now at 4777 from 4788 short

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  47. 4777,4792,(4812),4827,4842.
    OK guys , it’s happening… below 4827 after 2pm hitting 4812 , below 4812 now at lower end of chop at 4792 .. 4827 tested at least 4 times .. bulls need to hold above 4792 after 3pm ..
    its now above or below 4792 after 3pm

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