This is the phase transition from fossil to ew cars. Its happening fast and many old players will be shaken out and new ones rise to new heights like Tesla. Nail in the coffin will be expensive oil.
Tore, while there may be profitable trades to be made to the long side on electric vehicles, as far as the economics and net energy consumption of those things, they make no sense at all, also there is no reason other than war (very likely I admit) or WEF / EU dictakt, for crude oil to rise at a rate greater than any other commodity vs depreciating fiat currencies.
Adam Mancini
@AdamMancini4
Happy Thanksgiving! NYSE closed & #ES_F open until 1pm – slow day. After running to 4580 target yesterday, I defined 4556-4580 as the holiday chop zone. Holding precise so far.
Plan today: Fill out 4556-4572. As long as above 4556; 4580, 4590, 4610 in play. Dip only if 56 fails.
If China makes a w-2 up, you can then hold shorts for a long time..
I envision sitting by a Peruvuan stream, sidelinened from all the chaos. 2 China peaks and a doomed house, thats what we can hope for.
4545,(4565),4580,4595,4610,
(4630).
gapping up its a triangle formation.. from symmetrical triangle turning ascending. hitting 4580 again would be ascending. bulls need to stay above 4565 after 2pm
Also some BOIL before the weekly natural gas inventory data came out. There was a modest drawdown, rather than a build and it and natural gas futures popped. I think I will do fine on it in the short term.
Gap up most likely form a triangle again .. 4565-4580 .. below 4580 after 10:15am , possible symmetrical or ascending. Hold above 4565 after 10:15 , and hitting 4580 will form an ascending triangle at line 4580
Good morning guys .
4530,4545,(4565),4580,4595,4610,
(4630).
Nothing is changed yesterday it retested almost at 4530 5dema longer term at 4537-38 1/2 way retraced back and tested all day at 4545 . now back to 4565 extension. the lower end of chop was tested , very likely aiming for 4580 top of chop. bears MUST hold below 4565 or else 4580, bullish above 4580 until 4630.
longer term 5dema around 4530-38, still aiming top of BB now at 4675. 18dsma is around 4415, fail below 5dema 4530 will aim at 18dsma , but it is still a bull trend.
Happy thanks giving and Good luck.
looking at next feb/march , bulls must hold above 4300. i am using 18dsma as a indicator for bull or bear trend, if 5dema is below 18dsma 20y/d ,it will AIM straight DOWN to lower end of BB
just sold at preset 4578 closer to 4580 from buy above 4565 right after cash open from 4568 .. ez 10pt , now its above or below 4580 after 10:15am , rebuy if below 4580
High,
if someone went long in Amgen, see Osti November 13, 2023 at 9:30 pm, then the one should had had been stopped out at 262$. I personally did this trade not at all and now I think, that those, who did it, should be satisfied with the little profit, 249$ -> 262$, and not try it again, although the down move from 274$ still has not killed the 61, 259$, because the 1d- and 1h-RSI`s are in line and specifically the 1d-RSI gives no hint, that the down move move from 288$ already had had ended at 249$.
Phil we need a 1929 run up on steroids, where else is the funds going to come from. Bonds are dead, interest high, housing in a bubble. Can we even make it to the 22nd century without a stock mania 🙂
I think 18, 1, 4 were the numbers I was using when I got close to Ira’s numbers. I stopped doing it that way because it wasn’t materially different than the standard 14,1, 3.
Adam Mancini
@AdamMancini4
·
24m
Thanksgiving week is seasonally strong in $SPX as many noted – but worth noting the back half of the week (Wed-Fri) is on avg the driver of it
The Wed-Fri period has been green 83% of years since 1950, including last year. 8 of last 10 thanksgiving weeks have been green overall
With SPX down something like one day in November, perhaps this may not happen. The problem with the Wed. – Fri. period is the market is closed on Thursday.
We are now about to enter holiday trading with tomorrow the final full day of trading for the rest of the week. Seasonally, this period is strong (about 83% green historically) but with this much rally into it, will this year fail?
Adam Mancini
@AdamMancini4
·
4m
4549 1st target hit. Today was a textbook example of one the most fundamental setups: The backtest in #ES_F. We broke out 4536-42 yesterday – plan today was sell to backtest & bounce, and we backtested & bounced.
Lock in partials. 4556 (gate to 4572, 4580) next. 36 fails, we dip
Adam Mancini
@AdamMancini4
·
15m
Slow holiday week trading continues in #ES_F & we are coming into ~4556 Target #2 as we play out the textbook back-test trade. Broke out 4536-42 yesterday, sold to back-test today, get long on the bounce.
Lock more in here. 4572, 4580 if this can clear. Dips only when 4536 fail
(4500),4515,4530,4545,(4565),4580..
GM guys, yesterday it hit top at 4571 almost 4573 1/2 way now retracing below 4565 to possible 4545 lower end of chopzone and 5dema longer term at 4530. bears need cash open below 4565 and after 10:15am to aim at 4545/4530 if hitting close to 4530 is a BUY as it is bullish above 5dema longer term and a retrace back to test bearish below 4545 short term.
Bull trend stay above 18dsma and bullish above 5dema 20Y/D always aiming top of BB, forget your EW non-sense .
Good luck.
Nabend,
Walgreens had had touched a trendline and it is near a 123 extension, the 1d- and 1w-RSI`s have a pos. div. and the 1m-RSI a pos. lag. Although it is against the rules, never ever catch a moving knife and the (down)trend is your friend, I think, should it touch the green trend line again and/or reach the 123, 18$, that one can try a stop buy at the upper daily BB, currently at 22.14 with an entry sl. at the lower daily BB, currently at 20.24. But please keep in mind, that that will be an extremely high risk; therefore stop on deuce IMMEDIATELY!!!, eventually one can try it again, if stopped out, but that one should decide in the then actual situation.
SPX closing stochastics have both been over 80 every day starting on November 6. It would take a substantially drop in one day or a few days of drops to become unembedded. For now, listen to BTO and try, try, try to let it ride.
. FWIW…. SPX
Phil’s 4683 Expected Approach Time (EAT)–> Jan.17-18th 2024. (on my 360* Time wheel. )
Market has to digest these huge gains. As the market went too far , too fast. Some sideways action will be “healthy” as they say.
what i see is just another symmetrical triangle longer time frame , 5 ext down to 4100 and 6 ext up (almost 7) is NOT a bull market.. this is a similar day trading symmetrical pattern that expands the time frame 100 times. 🤣🤣🤣
Looks like “tank man” anniversary of 31,4 years at Oct 26 did the trick, think China is THE factor underpinning the market. Lots of China hat spikes on thart since 90s, hoping for one now, 6k is a double, more optimistically 10k. And if they are behind, yes their sneakers are fast and furious.
(4500),4515,4530,4545,
(4565),4580..
its above or below 4565 at 3pm .. algo balancing at 4565 .. timing, price and precision .. you trade whats in front of you , the market always show you the path
4545,(4565),4580,4595,4610,
(4630)…
ABOVE 4565 after 3pm , possible 4573-4580 , testing top of chop first … i would short at 4577 with SL above 4585 …
minimal risk and great reward at least 20pt.
The longer term trend is bullish above 5dema (now at 4515) , it could be short term bullish below 4545 and retest 5dema longer term .. nothing is change , thats the pattern
I commented earlier on MSFT, META, SMH hitting new highs. NVDA has joined them and releases their results tomorrow. What gets me is that INTC took a haircut after releasing their results and is now at a 52-week high. If NVDA beats after the bell tomorrow, there could be one more blast higher.
(4500),4515,4530,4545,
(4565),4580.
it is still bullish above 4515 until 4565 is hit, warning send before 11:30am , stay above 11:30am gap straight up ..
at 4565 it would become chopzone again , bearish below 4545 and bullish above 4580..
Longer term 5dema above 4500, still straight Up aiming top of BB at 4600 , there is NOTHING bearish longer term until below 5dema to 18dsma . above 18dsma is still bull trend.
now 6 extension straight Up from 4175.
max avg 5 ext .. last year we saw 7 top
Adam Mancini
@AdamMancini4
·
16m
This morning, I provided two targets in #ES_F for the breakout of a textbook 4 day triangle 4514-4535. 4543 (hit), 4556-60 and we just hit Target #2 now. For longs, lock in partial gains here, leave runners. Decent res
If ES can push through this, 4577-80 next. Sells <4535
phil1247 
This is the phase transition from fossil to ew cars. Its happening fast and many old players will be shaken out and new ones rise to new heights like Tesla. Nail in the coffin will be expensive oil.
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If it has aleeady inverted, it can go to 14 Usd in one swooop.
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Tore, while there may be profitable trades to be made to the long side on electric vehicles, as far as the economics and net energy consumption of those things, they make no sense at all, also there is no reason other than war (very likely I admit) or WEF / EU dictakt, for crude oil to rise at a rate greater than any other commodity vs depreciating fiat currencies.
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Hold back the thanks before the market gives…:)
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It this goes into a 3 it will be “huge” for sure.
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Adam Mancini
@AdamMancini4
Happy Thanksgiving! NYSE closed & #ES_F open until 1pm – slow day. After running to 4580 target yesterday, I defined 4556-4580 as the holiday chop zone. Holding precise so far.
Plan today: Fill out 4556-4572. As long as above 4556; 4580, 4590, 4610 in play. Dip only if 56 fails.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I know “Funnymentals” are not the bread and butter here….but….sooner or later
this will play out.
https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited/status/1726962750361092143/photo/1
LikeLiked by 3 people
If China makes a w-2 up, you can then hold shorts for a long time..
I envision sitting by a Peruvuan stream, sidelinened from all the chaos. 2 China peaks and a doomed house, thats what we can hope for.
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4545,(4565),4580,4595,4610,
(4630).
gapping up its a triangle formation.. from symmetrical triangle turning ascending. hitting 4580 again would be ascending. bulls need to stay above 4565 after 2pm
LikeLiked by 2 people
Close to Mancini’s 4590, followed by 4609, FWIW. 4556 – 4580 chop zone.
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Mancini is calling for a support to crack, likely next week.
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New highs for AMZN, META, MSFT today
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Msft to 600 $ ? They git a bunch of Ai personell, riding that wave too…
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ok
now i have all parameters neeed going forward
all on auto pilot now
have a great thanksgiving all !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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thanks phil
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Mrs. Bobo gives me all the parameters I can handle.
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Phil, Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family !!
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target missed by 7
risk remains down to 28 es
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spx downtrend line hit
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scalded cat rejection
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stop pushed wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy up now
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sold at white line
got lucky again 😉
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RabbitTrader met Cleopatra in a prior life; got lucky again. Now he’s trying to meet Fiona Margaret.
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white line = KISS principle
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God Bless Fiona. I bought some UVXY this morning.
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Also some BOIL before the weekly natural gas inventory data came out. There was a modest drawdown, rather than a build and it and natural gas futures popped. I think I will do fine on it in the short term.
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I have been trading it and it popped to a new HOD just now.
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Sold UVXY, short attention span.
Sold some BOIL near the new HOD > $43.
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Got cold feet and sold the rest of BOIL AH. Didn’t want to hold over Thanksgiving.
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Gap up most likely form a triangle again .. 4565-4580 .. below 4580 after 10:15am , possible symmetrical or ascending. Hold above 4565 after 10:15 , and hitting 4580 will form an ascending triangle at line 4580
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Good morning guys .
4530,4545,(4565),4580,4595,4610,
(4630).
Nothing is changed yesterday it retested almost at 4530 5dema longer term at 4537-38 1/2 way retraced back and tested all day at 4545 . now back to 4565 extension. the lower end of chop was tested , very likely aiming for 4580 top of chop. bears MUST hold below 4565 or else 4580, bullish above 4580 until 4630.
longer term 5dema around 4530-38, still aiming top of BB now at 4675. 18dsma is around 4415, fail below 5dema 4530 will aim at 18dsma , but it is still a bull trend.
Happy thanks giving and Good luck.
LikeLiked by 6 people
looking at next feb/march , bulls must hold above 4300. i am using 18dsma as a indicator for bull or bear trend, if 5dema is below 18dsma 20y/d ,it will AIM straight DOWN to lower end of BB
LikeLiked by 4 people
just sold at preset 4578 closer to 4580 from buy above 4565 right after cash open from 4568 .. ez 10pt , now its above or below 4580 after 10:15am , rebuy if below 4580
LikeLiked by 1 person
straight up
4587 es today
LikeLiked by 4 people
High,
if someone went long in Amgen, see Osti November 13, 2023 at 9:30 pm, then the one should had had been stopped out at 262$. I personally did this trade not at all and now I think, that those, who did it, should be satisfied with the little profit, 249$ -> 262$, and not try it again, although the down move from 274$ still has not killed the 61, 259$, because the 1d- and 1h-RSI`s are in line and specifically the 1d-RSI gives no hint, that the down move move from 288$ already had had ended at 249$.
LikeLiked by 1 person
VIX buy signal was confirmed on oct 24
bullish for stocks
some may recall that
it worked out well .. eh ?
LikeLiked by 3 people
remember .. the vix buy signal usually comes about a week before the bottom
again … it worked pretty well
LikeLiked by 2 people
Phil we need a 1929 run up on steroids, where else is the funds going to come from. Bonds are dead, interest high, housing in a bubble. Can we even make it to the 22nd century without a stock mania 🙂
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https://wordpress.com/post/torehund.wordpress.com/9978
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amber
i was fooling around with the k and d lines
i think i am close to ira epsteins secret stochastic settings
its 18, 4
not exactly the same as his but very close
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I think 18, 1, 4 were the numbers I was using when I got close to Ira’s numbers. I stopped doing it that way because it wasn’t materially different than the standard 14,1, 3.
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nvidia
was going to 511
as i showed many months ago
some may remember this chart
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nvidia
good ..bad ..
it doesnt matter
look at those lines
thats all that matters
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NVDA releases after the bell. I read that they are likely to surpass lofty expectations and provide strong guidance. We shall see.
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Adam Mancini
@AdamMancini4
·
24m
Thanksgiving week is seasonally strong in $SPX as many noted – but worth noting the back half of the week (Wed-Fri) is on avg the driver of it
The Wed-Fri period has been green 83% of years since 1950, including last year. 8 of last 10 thanksgiving weeks have been green overall
LikeLiked by 2 people
With SPX down something like one day in November, perhaps this may not happen. The problem with the Wed. – Fri. period is the market is closed on Thursday.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Just received in an e-mail:
We are now about to enter holiday trading with tomorrow the final full day of trading for the rest of the week. Seasonally, this period is strong (about 83% green historically) but with this much rally into it, will this year fail?
LikeLiked by 1 person
The market closes early Friday (10:00am Pacific time) and is usually very thinly traded. As a result, it usually goes up pretty good.
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Stock down slightly on release. Seemed good to me. Conference call at 5:00 PM.
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it doesnt matter
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sold half
rebuy a smash later
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doubled longs upro
rocket blast
LikeLiked by 1 person
Adam Mancini
@AdamMancini4
·
4m
4549 1st target hit. Today was a textbook example of one the most fundamental setups: The backtest in #ES_F. We broke out 4536-42 yesterday – plan today was sell to backtest & bounce, and we backtested & bounced.
Lock in partials. 4556 (gate to 4572, 4580) next. 36 fails, we dip
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Adam Mancini
@AdamMancini4
·
15m
Slow holiday week trading continues in #ES_F & we are coming into ~4556 Target #2 as we play out the textbook back-test trade. Broke out 4536-42 yesterday, sold to back-test today, get long on the bounce.
Lock more in here. 4572, 4580 if this can clear. Dips only when 4536 fail
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remember
STRAIGHT UP
but……….
still 50 points of risk
LikeLiked by 3 people
ok time for breakfast now
see you later
LikeLiked by 1 person
initial long at 38 es now
LikeLiked by 1 person
the larger extension long is intact
buy you have about 100 points of risk from the high
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staight up extension long failed ………
probably nothing again
move along
nothing to see here
LikeLiked by 1 person
straight down vx broken
you keep getting warnings
probably nothing 😉
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Can you guess which color comes next ?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/p4UdD67L/
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is the falling white line during the rally open interest ?
if so it means short covering …. not new buying
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The falling white line is the 6 dma of daily volume.
As the market has risen volume is falling…..Bearish
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And is likely to be anemic all week given Thanksgiving.
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(4500),4515,4530,4545,(4565),4580..
GM guys, yesterday it hit top at 4571 almost 4573 1/2 way now retracing below 4565 to possible 4545 lower end of chopzone and 5dema longer term at 4530. bears need cash open below 4565 and after 10:15am to aim at 4545/4530 if hitting close to 4530 is a BUY as it is bullish above 5dema longer term and a retrace back to test bearish below 4545 short term.
Bull trend stay above 18dsma and bullish above 5dema 20Y/D always aiming top of BB, forget your EW non-sense .
Good luck.
LikeLiked by 5 people
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Nabend,
Walgreens had had touched a trendline and it is near a 123 extension, the 1d- and 1w-RSI`s have a pos. div. and the 1m-RSI a pos. lag. Although it is against the rules, never ever catch a moving knife and the (down)trend is your friend, I think, should it touch the green trend line again and/or reach the 123, 18$, that one can try a stop buy at the upper daily BB, currently at 22.14 with an entry sl. at the lower daily BB, currently at 20.24. But please keep in mind, that that will be an extremely high risk; therefore stop on deuce IMMEDIATELY!!!, eventually one can try it again, if stopped out, but that one should decide in the then actual situation.
LikeLiked by 4 people
SPX closing stochastics have both been over 80 every day starting on November 6. It would take a substantially drop in one day or a few days of drops to become unembedded. For now, listen to BTO and try, try, try to let it ride.
LikeLiked by 1 person
. FWIW…. SPX
Phil’s 4683 Expected Approach Time (EAT)–> Jan.17-18th 2024. (on my 360* Time wheel. )
Market has to digest these huge gains. As the market went too far , too fast. Some sideways action will be “healthy” as they say.
LikeLiked by 3 people
what i see is just another symmetrical triangle longer time frame , 5 ext down to 4100 and 6 ext up (almost 7) is NOT a bull market.. this is a similar day trading symmetrical pattern that expands the time frame 100 times. 🤣🤣🤣
LikeLiked by 3 people
Looks like “tank man” anniversary of 31,4 years at Oct 26 did the trick, think China is THE factor underpinning the market. Lots of China hat spikes on thart since 90s, hoping for one now, 6k is a double, more optimistically 10k. And if they are behind, yes their sneakers are fast and furious.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Could you please repeat that English? I have no idea what you are talking about.
LikeLiked by 1 person
31,4 is 10 x pi(3,14)
LikeLiked by 1 person
I haven’t gone to Wikipedia, just your blog which says nothing.
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SPX now touching trend line that goes from prior highs at 4819 and 4607. What next?
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4683 cash
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i have that line at 63 cash
not there yet
LikeLiked by 1 person
from this am
can i get a ding ?
LikeLiked by 3 people
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(4500),4515,4530,4545,
(4565),4580..
its above or below 4565 at 3pm .. algo balancing at 4565 .. timing, price and precision .. you trade whats in front of you , the market always show you the path
LikeLiked by 2 people
4545,(4565),4580,4595,4610,
(4630)…
ABOVE 4565 after 3pm , possible 4573-4580 , testing top of chop first … i would short at 4577 with SL above 4585 …
minimal risk and great reward at least 20pt.
LikeLiked by 3 people
The longer term trend is bullish above 5dema (now at 4515) , it could be short term bullish below 4545 and retest 5dema longer term .. nothing is change , thats the pattern
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bearish below 4545
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qqq break out !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
dumping all TQQQ lotto tix now
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ok folks
dumped most longs
will check it again tomorrow
have a good nite all
LikeLiked by 4 people
I commented earlier on MSFT, META, SMH hitting new highs. NVDA has joined them and releases their results tomorrow. What gets me is that INTC took a haircut after releasing their results and is now at a 52-week high. If NVDA beats after the bell tomorrow, there could be one more blast higher.
LikeLiked by 1 person
es got within 5 points of 66 target
only have 600 UPRO left
LikeLiked by 4 people
remember
if this is a triangle and post triangle thrust
it could be the 4th and 5th waves
if so i expect a pullback and since its so extended
it could be a doozie
LikeLiked by 4 people
(4500),4515,4530,4545,
(4565),4580.
it is still bullish above 4515 until 4565 is hit, warning send before 11:30am , stay above 11:30am gap straight up ..
at 4565 it would become chopzone again , bearish below 4545 and bullish above 4580..
Longer term 5dema above 4500, still straight Up aiming top of BB at 4600 , there is NOTHING bearish longer term until below 5dema to 18dsma . above 18dsma is still bull trend.
now 6 extension straight Up from 4175.
max avg 5 ext .. last year we saw 7 top
LikeLiked by 3 people
The only pattern structure that works is triangles . symmetrical,ascending or descending.. short term and longer term
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Classic Edwards and Macgee Bear flag
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F_ZafDyXYAA0tWX?format=png&name=small
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Adam Mancini
@AdamMancini4
·
16m
This morning, I provided two targets in #ES_F for the breakout of a textbook 4 day triangle 4514-4535. 4543 (hit), 4556-60 and we just hit Target #2 now. For longs, lock in partial gains here, leave runners. Decent res
If ES can push through this, 4577-80 next. Sells <4535
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