Good morning all. Just playing around with bull and bear cases for the SPX. Two charts one is the bull case, the other the bear case. This analysis is based on technical analysis, Fibonacci retracements and EW not OEW. I follow Tone’s posts as well. Tone is looking at early April and that might be spot on. Vixguru and othere are looking at March 24. To make both happy and valid counts…..perhaps a wave “b” down of unknown degree on March 24 followed by a final c of C of B around 4550-4600 in early April and then a final leg leg down “C”. As you can see by both the bull and bear anaylses we are coming to an inflection level soon. For me I will use SPX 4600 on a closing basis for the SPX as my bull/bear LIS. I took a swing long on SPY early this week with a stop and raise it accordingly.
The rational for the bull setup is SPX and NASDAQ have completed a 38.1% retracements…a common retrace for wave 4 of 5. This magnitude of this rally was significant but not as technical as I would have liked it to be…..there was a vacuum of space for this rally and soon SPX should be testing various resistance levels (Ira’s call and charts below). For me, it increases the probability of this pullback was minor wave 4, if we break these and resistance levels. . Could be all the major index;s go back in sync for wave 5.
Forget the detailed wave counts, completely subjective on my part. There is an important zone, call it my bull/bear line in the sand zone. I think if this is truly a bear market SPX should stay below 4550. But I will use 4600 as my official LIS.
I commented yesterday on the Fib retracements for SPX and NDX. In the cash session SPX fell 1.24 points shy of the 50% retracement. NDX fell 28.xx shy of the 38.2% retracement. Both were pushed higher in the shortened after hours.
NDX still fell shy of the 38.2% retracement. SPX got a bit above the 50% and the 200-day SMA and would have gotten above the upper BB slightly based on the stockcharts cash chart.
I kept notes of an ira video from a couple weeks ago.
Ira said Pros will short the 18-week. Said 4576.50 is a short, That must have been closing high of the 4594.80 move on February 2.
He said the 18-week should be below 4576.50 in a week or so.
He said we may get to 61.8% of the entire move. Using cash that is 4301.37..
Hi Rider..Back from running errands all day. Didn’t notice your post….yes, great post. There are a lot of targets that could provide resistance, The Fibs are just one set of technical’s. Ira’s levels the MDA averages and the top of the Bollanger bands and finally, one of my charts from last week (“bull and bear” targets to watch for this week) namely 4489 and 4595 are additional resistance levels to watch this week..
good morning guys , EW is hard for me to decipher , i am guessing we hit the Bigger A Last week close to 4100-4000 mid march, next week retrace and retest 18 Dsma 4200-4300, and then break out in april above 4400 . april-sep will be range bound 4400-4700, with Bigger B coming, oct-dec will be Bigger C dip to year end . making a over all rounding the top bearish pattern .. thats my guess …
I may have steered you wrong on the UVXY. I discovered a few minutes ago (6:55 PM) that when the market got drawn down after OpEx last year it bottomed on Thursday the 25th. This year that is the 24th.
SOXL was down almost 10%. FNGU was down some 20%.
After hours I switched some of my FNGD to UVXY. I discovered that last year following OpEx they hammered UVXY down while the market was going down. That is a new one on me.
UVXY was up a bit after hours relative to what I added it for after hours. I sold all UVXY. I had sold some FNGD to add the UVXY after hours.
I bought it back with about 1 minute to spare. After hours trading ends for me in Canada at 7:00 PM
I know VIX can be weak as its futures are coming up to expiration but we are in a new month.
Not saying that they will hammer UVXY next week but I didn’t want to run the risk.
UVXY looks ready to roll per my analysis; so does LABD. First, will be interesting to see if SPX is stopped in its tracks here. I finally got confirmation of the A wave, and now this B is 50% so far, but can go up to 61.8% or more.
The greater 14349 sell had had been stopped out on deuce for the 3rd time. No 4th try, specifically, because the DAX already had had gone over 14387 and therewith broken the short term down move. The sl. for the 14078 stop buy I would still let on deuce, if one already had had not been stopped out @ 14340 on the very short term time frame.
The greater picture of the DAX looks as if it COULD become to a test of the broken neckline of the “shs” and with that to a test of the 61 of the 16274 – 12425 move. SHOULD the 14800 area be broken directly, then, I think, one can not rule out a possible “v”-formation, but that remains to be seen.
Stocks are looking into the teeth of the upper boundary of declining trend-channels that have defined the orderly plunge from the start of January 2022. Several prior rallies, that proved to be merely corrections inside a declining trend, have been stopped by this boundary. We show these patterns and discuss their impact on the stock market in our Thursday Market Forecast Newsletter, issue no. 4324, March 17th
I bought more UvXY, now in the green It is creeping up. Insurance protection? Quite often on a day like today it pops right after the close in extended trading.
I bought at 15.89 but didn’t like the move and sold at 15.92. Regarding, OPEX peak times, I may be wrong as I say that from memory. I have a spreadsheet of daily high and low times for last few years. If I have time, I will try to post high times of OPEX days for last 10 or 20; just for fun.
Long it and FNGD. FNGU and SOXL set higher highs with the pop before 1:00. LABU peaked quite early in the session. Have LABD and some dry powder for between now and the close.
We are about to turn the calendar for the weakest few days of the month historically which aligns with the 24/25th.
You could be right; my stomach doesn’t like UVXY much. For now, I’m still looking to see if SPX price and upper BB will say let’s just kiss and say good bye.
Bad morning,
today all my edits of the 3 US-indices on investing had had been vanished in the nirvana; I only have the naked charts. Watch, whether es will break the 4418, because in this case the “w”-formation will be activated and, if this happens directly, the “only” 36 points away 4454 greater sell has to be put into question. The 5m- and 1h-RSI`s have furthermore a neg. div., but there seems to be very high upward pressure in the market, wherefore the market may not react on the neg. div.`s. The reason COULD be, that today (or next Friday?) is (will be) triple witching. Therefore be extremely cautious in both directions, sl. on deuce at once, or stay out.
My limit at 15.89 might not get hit. Problem is today’s high of 17.19 is lower than yesterday’s 17.27; thus the lower low. Not sure if there is an upside above 16.25.
Short both with a profit. Will sell half of each which should insulate me if we go higher into the close, with the view of adding UVXY .which may not take out yesterday’s low of $16.21
i dont recall the last time the SPX went from 244 pts below Maxpain to settle at Maxpain (4405) in three days
most of the time the SPX stays well above Maxpain (monthly Opex) and when it goes below as in Jan and Feb and Mar 2020 it leads to increased selling
Based on last Friday’s options open interest :”Arthur Knopf” of sentiment signals said we could see SPX 4450 today. I don’t think it will go that high if it takes out yesterdays high.
The question is not if it is going up on the larger time frames. The question is if it is impulsing which means new highs for the SPX and DOW.
Below is the bullish count on the hourly chart and it matches on the daily. The closing low is 58. The nominal low does not matter.
The weekly chart closing above the 5 and being more then 3% means an uptrend is likely. That means we go up to April. “see you in April” cited on March 8th.
How does this become impulsive? The bulls do not need this up. They want it sideways. They want to establish a low today or early next week that buys the time to allow the 34 to move up as to not get a cross that also gets on the daily chart. For example, if they get a low today around 4350, they take it up early next week to suck the 34 up above 4350 and get a cross with no lower low and then go higher. That would be 5 up on the early and 3 on the daily. At that point the bears could have a zig-zag but if there is a larger order 4 and 5 you are impulsing and we are going to new highs. Which would mean the subsequent 2 down (higher low in April) is a buy.
Look at the weekly chart. The flow of the bar. Next week should be a higher high higher low week. The bar is big and even if it is not impulsing it is likely the market, if going down needs to test higher because of the size of the move up.
IF impulsive sideways to up into early next week to establish a higher high. Then up into the end of March before a sell-off in early april that holds the low.
IF not impulsive and an uptrend is underway. Next week will have a larger down draft to eliminate the impulsive pattern. Up into early April and then down to break below the March low or a flat back to the March low.
Is an immediate fall possible? It is. As stated yesterday. IF the 34 on the daily is only going to be closed above for 1 day then yes. As it goes when there is a 3% move in a week you are in an uptrend over 90% of the time in a bull market. In a bear market that drops to around 68% of the time. So the 3% percent means less if this is a bear market. But today a close above the 5 would mean it is highly probable up into April. So while the bears can collapse the market it is a low probability because of the weekly bar. It would almost certainly come with an inside week next week which would…eliminate the impulsive count on the hourly.
Up into April continues to be the most obvious path. Close only charts show a top on the last week of December and the first week of March. Exactly what was anticipated. Now the uptrend. How does the uptrend look. What if we go to new highs on the SPX? Then the June downtrend was missed in 2020 that matches the DOW. The key index will be the COMP if the SPX gets a new high. It should not get a new high. That would tell you when any new high was down.
Still think a B into April. Bear bamboozling this week and Bull bamboozling coming. But if it is impulsive, it is impulsive. There is no truncated wedge. Not an option. The closing low of the entire move down is March 8th. It can be impulive from that point. That is what is laid out above.
Thank you Ronnie, et. al. Don’t know if this post will go through as I have been banned about 2 weeks ago. My charts and posts were erased and wasn’t able to post…haven’t tried since the ban.
Phil do you see anything longer range on the Btk index with your methods. Just curious since it went up a bit today after my yesterday post. Could it be the bottom, also asking the other for their take with EW counts e.t.c.
You are learning, think it takes 20 + years to think right and then 20 + years to execute what you have learned. I am always concerned about finding bottoms and tops, thats simply the most interesting. In the end, the less you think you know the better it goes. Think if we all just bought microsoft, clorox and many more 10 years ago and sat it out…Even Barrick gold a large cap if bought at the right time yielded a 5 bagger. Stocks are a humbeling experience, but thats why we do it 🙂
Thats my curse, but this time it may be different,lol….Look how reasonable many bios are priced. But if they fail here it could turn really nasty. It has been a macd recession without much price decline. Spring is usually favorable to biotech until mid June, but if it is a stubborn bear it may even happen they dont go up at all. In summer they are regularly slammed 🙂
In the DAX the 3rd try of the 13349 sell had had been activated. But the chart picture is far away from showing an upper turn. The 1st hint would be, if the DAX goes under 14243, but even then it still could be an ordinary, simple counter move. Therefore sl. on deuce NOW!!!
In this sense “wish you what”
Södele,
es went up despite the neg. RSI`s, which speaks for an inner strength of the es on the one hand; on the other hand are chart technical (resistant) points very often in such a situation a turning point. Furthermore was the days high, 4414, de facto the completion of the blue “w”-formation. Please note, that such a formation first will be activated, if es breaks the 4418, goes over it!!! Conventionally is the high of such a formation, 4418, a classical stop buy point. But, in this case, I think, the risk is too high, because of the (permanent) warning of the RSI`s and therefore, safety 1st, I will not do at the moment a 4418 stop buy. Should a little greater counter move occur, then there is a 4332 buy. This buy has a high risk too, because, should es go so far deep down, it would be a warning sign, that the “w”-formation already could be dead before it had had been activated. For all these reasons I will wait, how the es tomorrow will develop itself. Beyond that, should es break the 4418 to the up side, I will look at the 123, 4453, of 4250 – 4414, how es there will behave itself, because it is close to the greater 4454 sell.
Closed just above the 50-day EMA for SPX. I believe I have heard some technicians refer to the the 65-day, FWIW the 50-day SMA is 4437.47 and the 65-day EMA is 4437.67.
NDX is struggling with the 34-day. The 50-day is a fair bit higher.
In one of his spam e-mails he said he has 8 phi pate turn dates this year and only 3 last year, IIRC. If that comes to pass, there may be big swings throughout the year.
They are going to have to take their foot off the gas in order to leave something in the tank for tomorrow. I called for a pullback yesterday for overnight for the same reasons.
i wouldnt call it a count , but an ABCDE down. from the trend lines you posted yesterday, simply change that and make the lines Parallel. from the highs you get approx
A 4800-4200
B 4200-4600
C 4600-4100
D 4100-4475 Hopefully or close enough
E 4475 to 3930 bottom of that line
more of a pattern recognition then an ew count
phil1247 
NEW POST >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
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Good morning all. Just playing around with bull and bear cases for the SPX. Two charts one is the bull case, the other the bear case. This analysis is based on technical analysis, Fibonacci retracements and EW not OEW. I follow Tone’s posts as well. Tone is looking at early April and that might be spot on. Vixguru and othere are looking at March 24. To make both happy and valid counts…..perhaps a wave “b” down of unknown degree on March 24 followed by a final c of C of B around 4550-4600 in early April and then a final leg leg down “C”. As you can see by both the bull and bear anaylses we are coming to an inflection level soon. For me I will use SPX 4600 on a closing basis for the SPX as my bull/bear LIS. I took a swing long on SPY early this week with a stop and raise it accordingly.
The rational for the bull setup is SPX and NASDAQ have completed a 38.1% retracements…a common retrace for wave 4 of 5. This magnitude of this rally was significant but not as technical as I would have liked it to be…..there was a vacuum of space for this rally and soon SPX should be testing various resistance levels (Ira’s call and charts below). For me, it increases the probability of this pullback was minor wave 4, if we break these and resistance levels. . Could be all the major index;s go back in sync for wave 5.
Forget the detailed wave counts, completely subjective on my part. There is an important zone, call it my bull/bear line in the sand zone. I think if this is truly a bear market SPX should stay below 4550. But I will use 4600 as my official LIS.
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asa:
I commented yesterday on the Fib retracements for SPX and NDX. In the cash session SPX fell 1.24 points shy of the 50% retracement. NDX fell 28.xx shy of the 38.2% retracement. Both were pushed higher in the shortened after hours.
NDX still fell shy of the 38.2% retracement. SPX got a bit above the 50% and the 200-day SMA and would have gotten above the upper BB slightly based on the stockcharts cash chart.
I kept notes of an ira video from a couple weeks ago.
Ira said Pros will short the 18-week. Said 4576.50 is a short, That must have been closing high of the 4594.80 move on February 2.
He said the 18-week should be below 4576.50 in a week or so.
He said we may get to 61.8% of the entire move. Using cash that is 4301.37..
Currently the 18-week SMA is 4542.25.
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Hi Rider..Back from running errands all day. Didn’t notice your post….yes, great post. There are a lot of targets that could provide resistance, The Fibs are just one set of technical’s. Ira’s levels the MDA averages and the top of the Bollanger bands and finally, one of my charts from last week (“bull and bear” targets to watch for this week) namely 4489 and 4595 are additional resistance levels to watch this week..
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..look at 2,42 looks like the $ssec set up, bullish.
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good morning guys , EW is hard for me to decipher , i am guessing we hit the Bigger A Last week close to 4100-4000 mid march, next week retrace and retest 18 Dsma 4200-4300, and then break out in april above 4400 . april-sep will be range bound 4400-4700, with Bigger B coming, oct-dec will be Bigger C dip to year end . making a over all rounding the top bearish pattern .. thats my guess …
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thanks 123.👍
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..good weekend all.
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Have a nice weekend guys and stay safe ..
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Upper BB is at 4465; SPX high is 4466 so far. There’s the kiss, will there be a good bye?
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Just shy of the 4459 pivot plus 7 points.
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amber:
I may have steered you wrong on the UVXY. I discovered a few minutes ago (6:55 PM) that when the market got drawn down after OpEx last year it bottomed on Thursday the 25th. This year that is the 24th.
SOXL was down almost 10%. FNGU was down some 20%.
After hours I switched some of my FNGD to UVXY. I discovered that last year following OpEx they hammered UVXY down while the market was going down. That is a new one on me.
UVXY was up a bit after hours relative to what I added it for after hours. I sold all UVXY. I had sold some FNGD to add the UVXY after hours.
I bought it back with about 1 minute to spare. After hours trading ends for me in Canada at 7:00 PM
I know VIX can be weak as its futures are coming up to expiration but we are in a new month.
Not saying that they will hammer UVXY next week but I didn’t want to run the risk.
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UVXY looks ready to roll per my analysis; so does LABD. First, will be interesting to see if SPX is stopped in its tracks here. I finally got confirmation of the A wave, and now this B is 50% so far, but can go up to 61.8% or more.
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I am thinking 61.8% later as well, although they can run to 76.4%. NDX/COMPQ is another matter. Maybe 50%. I doubt it gets to 61.8%.
I was putting more stock than perhaps I should have for a new low on or about March 24/25th.
Historically, there is weakness into early March. In 2020 with the crash the bottom was Mar. 23.
Last year the bottom was early March, then it actually ran up to the Fed meeting and there was a 50% retracement that ended on March 25.
That is what I am inclined to expect between Monday and the end of the month. It may only be a 38.2% retracement.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Monday a bit higher first.
They ran SPX up after hours. Why? It got above the upper BB and slightly above the 200-day SMA.
I am paying attention to a couple of seasonality charts I have.
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Looks like SPX now has a higher high and a higher low.
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I prefer to look at the big picture. SPX fell 1.24 points shy of the 50% Fib of the cash low and high.
Nothing to get excited about.
Looking at NDX and COMPQ less to get excited about.
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NDX 28.xx points shy of the Bullish Above 38.2% Fib.
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They squeezed another 1.5 points out of SPX after hours (investing.com read).
Not for NDX. I have seen this before. It will end badly.
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7.5 points squeeze for SPX from high
13.5 for NDX
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TTMB’s 4475 gets the prize.
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All I ever win is the booby prize. However, I am happy with where I sit right now.
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(4384),4399,4414,4429,(4449)..
sold all at 48 from above 29 reload
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Steve Miller in his mid-day video is calling for a decline into April, followed by strength into June.
I don’t think the decline will last past March 24/25. It could be choppy after that for awhile before it takes off.
Or not!
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FWIW, Mancini had a target of ES 4440 if we got past 4405. He later changed it to 4435 for some reason. 4440 coming up.
Above that is amber’s upper BB for cash.
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The greater 14349 sell had had been stopped out on deuce for the 3rd time. No 4th try, specifically, because the DAX already had had gone over 14387 and therewith broken the short term down move. The sl. for the 14078 stop buy I would still let on deuce, if one already had had not been stopped out @ 14340 on the very short term time frame.
The greater picture of the DAX looks as if it COULD become to a test of the broken neckline of the “shs” and with that to a test of the 61 of the 16274 – 12425 move. SHOULD the 14800 area be broken directly, then, I think, one can not rule out a possible “v”-formation, but that remains to be seen.
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More spam just received from McClue:
Stocks are looking into the teeth of the upper boundary of declining trend-channels that have defined the orderly plunge from the start of January 2022. Several prior rallies, that proved to be merely corrections inside a declining trend, have been stopped by this boundary. We show these patterns and discuss their impact on the stock market in our Thursday Market Forecast Newsletter, issue no. 4324, March 17th
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hourly trend very strong, 28 almost here, then 40 /42 ish (a bit higher than yesterday 39) taken one step at a time
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53,64 sheez
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past 64 entering 4500 area
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SPX march Opex = 4432. done.
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OPEX usually peaks by about 1:00 Eastern.
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I seem to recall them pushing it up to the close but I have often been known to be wrong.
It depends on maximum pain I suppose.
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I bought more UvXY, now in the green It is creeping up. Insurance protection? Quite often on a day like today it pops right after the close in extended trading.
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I bought at 15.89 but didn’t like the move and sold at 15.92. Regarding, OPEX peak times, I may be wrong as I say that from memory. I have a spreadsheet of daily high and low times for last few years. If I have time, I will try to post high times of OPEX days for last 10 or 20; just for fun.
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Liked by mistake.
By the 24/25th it will be north of $22, maybe $24 – $25.
At this point who cares about pennies.
Just saying.
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Long it and FNGD. FNGU and SOXL set higher highs with the pop before 1:00. LABU peaked quite early in the session. Have LABD and some dry powder for between now and the close.
We are about to turn the calendar for the weakest few days of the month historically which aligns with the 24/25th.
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FWIW, Mancini has has ES 4435 for some time. Not sure if we make it.
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You could be right; my stomach doesn’t like UVXY much. For now, I’m still looking to see if SPX price and upper BB will say let’s just kiss and say good bye.
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It gives you the biggest bang for you buck in a correction. Given how extended FNGU is now it may fare worse which is why I bought FNGD.
I keep track of UVXY. Don’t sweat the small stuff.
Trust me on this one.
It isn’t my first rodeo.
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Vixguru – Are you suggesting a peak is close and the downtrend may resume soon ?
Not too much WD.Gann please, or my head will explode 🙂
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Sold too soon. Not suggesting new lows yet.
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(4384),4399,4414,4429,(4449)…
updated for esm … bullish above 4399 until 4399 .. almost the same as phil’s charts .. few points difference
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hitting 1/2 way at 21
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Cash just a tad below the 4434 pivot. + 7 = 4441.
I believe there is also a 4459 pivot – 7 = 4452 cash.
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So I can just go back and reduce the previous ones by 9 points to account for the spread, right?
I don’t recall you changing them as we get close to their expiration.
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the last 4 times was -10 , this contract is -9 .. 😁
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Bad morning,
today all my edits of the 3 US-indices on investing had had been vanished in the nirvana; I only have the naked charts. Watch, whether es will break the 4418, because in this case the “w”-formation will be activated and, if this happens directly, the “only” 36 points away 4454 greater sell has to be put into question. The 5m- and 1h-RSI`s have furthermore a neg. div., but there seems to be very high upward pressure in the market, wherefore the market may not react on the neg. div.`s. The reason COULD be, that today (or next Friday?) is (will be) triple witching. Therefore be extremely cautious in both directions, sl. on deuce at once, or stay out.
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Yesterday’s UvXY low taken out by a penny. A little more please.
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6 cents $16.15. I have a buy order in at $16.05 but may raise it when out of remaining longs.
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LOD $16.06, missed my buy by a penny. Was asleep at the wheel.
Aaaaaaaaargh!
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Filled. New LOD $16.03. Was going to drop it to $16.01 but thought I would miss it by a penny.
I may buy more later..
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$16.00. I can’t get anything right, at least that’s what Mrs. Bobo says..
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My limit at 15.89 might not get hit. Problem is today’s high of 17.19 is lower than yesterday’s 17.27; thus the lower low. Not sure if there is an upside above 16.25.
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Losers average losers!
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4427 target but risk is to 4353
too much for me
banked profit in all but lotto tix
too much profit to give back
done till next week
see ya
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ps lotto preset exits at 4425 and 4440
SPIKE up while i am gone
see ya
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XLE and XLF both down. Tech is doing all the heavy lifting but can only do so much.
I am not going to try and squeeze the last nickel out of longs today, looking for a higher high hopefully and then short opportunities.
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5156 has been SURPASSED
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#5156 was a lifetime discount offer. At my age, I don’t know if the lifetime discount will be very good; I may have a short lifetime.
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Not sure what that means. No new high this year. No 5156 next year.
More likelihood of a recession first.
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we are ABOVE 5156 NOW!!!
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I don’t know what you are talking about. You have a methodology for your projections. tone is a big believer in time. When is the question?
I say not any time soon, but as I have stated I know nothing.
Just looing at the yield curve for now.
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There are now over 5180 posts on this thread; so we are over 5156.
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My apologies to phil.
I was so excited about today that I got up too early here on the West Coast. Not enough sleep.
Posting by 5:00 AM.
LMAO!
PS I am still excited about today.
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9:00 AM here. I would rather have a drink.
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STOP on rest placed
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sso likes to fill the gaps made intraday as well
i sell spikes up and wait for the gap fill to rebuy
sometimes doing this 5 or 10 times aday
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Just got an e-mail from Senior McClellan—— ” Drawdown in NDX Stocks”.
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Please elaborate.
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https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/drawdown_in_ndx_stocks/
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Thanks asa, don’t be a stranger.
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pushed up stops and bot more longs on dip
loaded long
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4410 preset exit triggered
2/3 SSO sold
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thanks phil
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Upper BB turned up today; it is at 4455. LABU, wow.
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Up 51.8% in a few days. FNGU up 62.2%.
Short both with a profit. Will sell half of each which should insulate me if we go higher into the close, with the view of adding UVXY .which may not take out yesterday’s low of $16.21
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To hell with it sold all at a good price. Long again.
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i dont recall the last time the SPX went from 244 pts below Maxpain to settle at Maxpain (4405) in three days
most of the time the SPX stays well above Maxpain (monthly Opex) and when it goes below as in Jan and Feb and Mar 2020 it leads to increased selling
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So we don’t take out yesterday’s high today?
Based on last Friday’s options open interest :”Arthur Knopf” of sentiment signals said we could see SPX 4450 today. I don’t think it will go that high if it takes out yesterdays high.
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My question has been answered. Covered my shorts early, paring longs for the time being.
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The question is not if it is going up on the larger time frames. The question is if it is impulsing which means new highs for the SPX and DOW.
Below is the bullish count on the hourly chart and it matches on the daily. The closing low is 58. The nominal low does not matter.
The weekly chart closing above the 5 and being more then 3% means an uptrend is likely. That means we go up to April. “see you in April” cited on March 8th.
How does this become impulsive? The bulls do not need this up. They want it sideways. They want to establish a low today or early next week that buys the time to allow the 34 to move up as to not get a cross that also gets on the daily chart. For example, if they get a low today around 4350, they take it up early next week to suck the 34 up above 4350 and get a cross with no lower low and then go higher. That would be 5 up on the early and 3 on the daily. At that point the bears could have a zig-zag but if there is a larger order 4 and 5 you are impulsing and we are going to new highs. Which would mean the subsequent 2 down (higher low in April) is a buy.
Look at the weekly chart. The flow of the bar. Next week should be a higher high higher low week. The bar is big and even if it is not impulsing it is likely the market, if going down needs to test higher because of the size of the move up.
IF impulsive sideways to up into early next week to establish a higher high. Then up into the end of March before a sell-off in early april that holds the low.
IF not impulsive and an uptrend is underway. Next week will have a larger down draft to eliminate the impulsive pattern. Up into early April and then down to break below the March low or a flat back to the March low.
Is an immediate fall possible? It is. As stated yesterday. IF the 34 on the daily is only going to be closed above for 1 day then yes. As it goes when there is a 3% move in a week you are in an uptrend over 90% of the time in a bull market. In a bear market that drops to around 68% of the time. So the 3% percent means less if this is a bear market. But today a close above the 5 would mean it is highly probable up into April. So while the bears can collapse the market it is a low probability because of the weekly bar. It would almost certainly come with an inside week next week which would…eliminate the impulsive count on the hourly.
Up into April continues to be the most obvious path. Close only charts show a top on the last week of December and the first week of March. Exactly what was anticipated. Now the uptrend. How does the uptrend look. What if we go to new highs on the SPX? Then the June downtrend was missed in 2020 that matches the DOW. The key index will be the COMP if the SPX gets a new high. It should not get a new high. That would tell you when any new high was down.
Still think a B into April. Bear bamboozling this week and Bull bamboozling coming. But if it is impulsive, it is impulsive. There is no truncated wedge. Not an option. The closing low of the entire move down is March 8th. It can be impulive from that point. That is what is laid out above.
https://gyazo.com/7d911890d8ddaed9b09267a64582438f
https://gyazo.com/e975980eb8e4157bf9d7d3fca9494ff4
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THE BLOG is going subsciber based
lock in your LIFETIME discount now
only $ 9,999.00
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im in PHIL …as long as you allow ASA to post news and fundamental views as well “:)
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asa is free to post but he is AWOL
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he can post those after trading hours
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Thank you Ronnie, et. al. Don’t know if this post will go through as I have been banned about 2 weeks ago. My charts and posts were erased and wasn’t able to post…haven’t tried since the ban.
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I’m in, but only if you allow rock ‘n roll posts for music between 1977 and 1995. Anything before or after leads to an immediate ban.
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what if fiona wants to post BACH videos?
and i dont mean BACHman turner overdrive 😉
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I saw The Doors and Led Zeppelin twice. You are dead wrong.
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he may be dead ……….
but at least he is greatful
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Okay, boomer.
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who’s blog is this ? 🤔
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you were AWOL with asa
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Short over night, can’t cover here in Canada until the cash market opens.
I am looking for the equivalent of schizo’s ES 4358+/- and about 100 points lower for NDX from overnight low shown on investing.com.
Plan on holding and not trading so much during the day once I go long. Looking at SOXL, FNGU and a bit of LABU..
Will be watching UVXY to see if it undercuts yesterday $16.21 low as insurance may be bought. Want to pick it up closer to $16.
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May not quite see the lows I suggested above, particularly for NDX.
Futures are down a lot more in Europe than the US.
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Phil do you see anything longer range on the Btk index with your methods. Just curious since it went up a bit today after my yesterday post. Could it be the bottom, also asking the other for their take with EW counts e.t.c.
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Lower low next week, March 24/25, then the bottom is in for some time. Lower lows to follow in a few months – August – October perhaps..
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..thanks for replying.
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One caveat, however, is that I know next to nothing.
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You are learning, think it takes 20 + years to think right and then 20 + years to execute what you have learned. I am always concerned about finding bottoms and tops, thats simply the most interesting. In the end, the less you think you know the better it goes. Think if we all just bought microsoft, clorox and many more 10 years ago and sat it out…Even Barrick gold a large cap if bought at the right time yielded a 5 bagger. Stocks are a humbeling experience, but thats why we do it 🙂
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Tore
since the last target was hit
its been downhill
the next tradional long failed
could rally up to SHORT but you are fighting the downtrend
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Thats my curse, but this time it may be different,lol….Look how reasonable many bios are priced. But if they fail here it could turn really nasty. It has been a macd recession without much price decline. Spring is usually favorable to biotech until mid June, but if it is a stubborn bear it may even happen they dont go up at all. In summer they are regularly slammed 🙂
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In the DAX the 3rd try of the 13349 sell had had been activated. But the chart picture is far away from showing an upper turn. The 1st hint would be, if the DAX goes under 14243, but even then it still could be an ordinary, simple counter move. Therefore sl. on deuce NOW!!!
In this sense “wish you what”
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Södele,
es went up despite the neg. RSI`s, which speaks for an inner strength of the es on the one hand; on the other hand are chart technical (resistant) points very often in such a situation a turning point. Furthermore was the days high, 4414, de facto the completion of the blue “w”-formation. Please note, that such a formation first will be activated, if es breaks the 4418, goes over it!!! Conventionally is the high of such a formation, 4418, a classical stop buy point. But, in this case, I think, the risk is too high, because of the (permanent) warning of the RSI`s and therefore, safety 1st, I will not do at the moment a 4418 stop buy. Should a little greater counter move occur, then there is a 4332 buy. This buy has a high risk too, because, should es go so far deep down, it would be a warning sign, that the “w”-formation already could be dead before it had had been activated. For all these reasons I will wait, how the es tomorrow will develop itself. Beyond that, should es break the 4418 to the up side, I will look at the 123, 4453, of 4250 – 4414, how es there will behave itself, because it is close to the greater 4454 sell.
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Maybe tomorrow will be a day for the Manhattans. Possible for SPX to kiss the upper BB and say good bye.
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I have 4449.29 and declining.
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Yes, should be around 4435 tomorrow.
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which is slightly lower than the declining 50-day SMA/65-day EMA, 4437..xx
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I believe there is an SPX 4434 pivot +/- 7 points. At least that used to be the range.
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More damn e-mails from McHugh this week than phil receives from The Twank. Aaaargh!
All I want to know is when his next phi-mate turn date is.
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FWIW, it was Mancini who was talking abut the ES 4370 trendline. He had 4405 next up which he referred to as strong.. Hit 4406.75.
He has 4435 next up.
I suspect there will be some cooling off and basing before a push higher.
I reloaded on the pullback, albeit small and benefited from higher highs in the 3 ETFs I mentioned.
Got out of TZA on the minor pullback.
Basically flat now.
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Closed just above the 50-day EMA for SPX. I believe I have heard some technicians refer to the the 65-day, FWIW the 50-day SMA is 4437.47 and the 65-day EMA is 4437.67.
NDX is struggling with the 34-day. The 50-day is a fair bit higher.
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In one of his spam e-mails he said he has 8 phi pate turn dates this year and only 3 last year, IIRC. If that comes to pass, there may be big swings throughout the year.
We have seen a few already.
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sold spike at close
rebot 10 point drop
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sorry , i am still working .. 😁 … busy
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97 hit
BOOM!
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*Phil* I just pulled up the fib grid on the ES daily, very close to the 38 special yeah ??
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raised stops
ready for rocket blast thru 97 es
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schizo
where are you ??
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Yep, I,m on this gig too.
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running out of gas here buddy
tighten that leash …… lol!
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Yeah i got a small prof locked in, was hoping for a grinder into the close.
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no grinder buddy ……..
ROCKET !!!!
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At today’s highs, relative to the recent low, FNGU, LABU and SOXL were up 47.8%, 35.9% and 35.3%, respectively.
If there is a decline into the 24th or 25th they will be hit hard ((FNGD, LABD, SOXS) and UVXY will be up a lot.
I don’t have the time or patience for SPX or DOW.
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I thought I heard someone say Cathie Wood’s ARKK is up for the third day in a row. If that is true, then market will probably go down.
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Read what I posted below re: Tom DeMark and the calendar information.
The market will be down next week.
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it could rally but until its above 80 its still straight down longer term
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my john bollinger favorite quote
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Since I posted the above FNGU and LABU took out their HOD. SOXL did not.
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initial rebuy at 80 es
buy a smash
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90 es hit
97 not hit yet
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4470 CASH is doable
i would rather buy a smash than hold now
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They are going to have to take their foot off the gas in order to leave something in the tank for tomorrow. I called for a pullback yesterday for overnight for the same reasons.
We may see another tonight.
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My 4475 call by Thursday looks like it will be off by a bit, but what a run it was
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what is your count again ?
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4475 ish cash Thursday was my call maybe Friday and crash to your 3930 area .
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yes but what is your ew count ?
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i wouldnt call it a count , but an ABCDE down. from the trend lines you posted yesterday, simply change that and make the lines Parallel. from the highs you get approx
A 4800-4200
B 4200-4600
C 4600-4100
D 4100-4475 Hopefully or close enough
E 4475 to 3930 bottom of that line
more of a pattern recognition then an ew count
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ok thanks
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50-day EMA and SMA currently at 4410.xx and 4437.xx. It will be stopped dead in its tracks at one or the other.
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es hourly trend up,not splitting hair talking areas, 4393,4430,4440
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daily spx 4460 may be next day or so
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es 5min 4th resistance and pivot at 92 a bit of a hurdle atm
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4382 es
exit half
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4392
exit all at 2 oclock balloon
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Got close to osti’s 4395.59/4396.27. I wasn’t going to hang around until quite then.
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RUT is hanging in there like a dirty shirt. Picked up a little TZA, tight stop.
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UVXY LOD $16.21, getting closer to my revised $16.00 buy. Maybe $16.01.
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Dollar tanking, gold and commidities is up. Confidence is lost.
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Still short of the upper BB; what is the envelope number?
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Just a touch more to get above the ES 4370 trendline I mentioned.
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Higher bond yields are supposed to help RUT which is 20% financials and hurt tech. Lower bond yields today, RUT outperforming, tech underperforming.
I expect that to change between now and tomorrow’s close.
Or not.
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Out of most longs.
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